In 2024, the world will continue to be characterised by a “battle of offers”, with regional and local agendas setting global trends. This “unbalanced multipolarity” – which sees medium-sized powers gaining influence – is amplified by the heightened competition for resources that drives green and digital transitions. It accentuates the variable geometry of alliances and agreements, while challenging or eroding hegemonic narratives that have shaped international discourse so far.
January 1 – The self-declared Republic of Artsakh will cease to exist, following the end of a military offensive by Azerbaijan. This development feeds into a wider debate about the limits of global governance, as well as the proliferation of new agendas and movements that challenge traditional parties and power structures. From the inauguration of anarcho-capitalist Javier Milei as president of Argentina to Nayib Bukele’s radical stance in El Salvador or the emergence of Popular Renewal in Peru, these radical agendas are a reflection of deep political and social crises.
November 5 – US presidential elections. The campaign will be highly polarised, as Donald Trump prepares to become the next president, while Joe Biden is seeking re-election. This will have repercussions for the world’s second largest economy, as well as for the global architecture of governance and international cooperation.
The UN will host the second summit on artificial intelligence, after a first meeting in 2023 that resulted in the Bletchley Declaration. This initiative aims to foster work and initiatives that reduce the risks associated with AI.